Germany’s Tornado Nuclear Weapons Carrier
von Otfried Nassauer
The
Federal Republic of Germany has been participating in NATO nuclear
sharing for decades. Currently it provides up to 46 dual-capable
Tornado fighter bombers at various stages of readiness in support of
NATO. These aircraft can be used to deliver nuclear weapons[ 1 ] Recently, this commitment
was indirectly renewed during NATO’s Chicago Summit, when the
alliance decided to retain about 180 U.S. B61-Mod 3 and Mod 4 nuclear
free-fall bombs deployed in Europe for the foreseeable future.[ 2 ] Germany agreed to continue
to provide Dual Capable Aircraft (DCA) for their delivery. However, the
Tornado is a legacy aircraft, produced during the 1980s, and now
approaching the end of it’s useful lifetime. This raises two
questions: How long can Germany continue to provide these aircraft?
Moreover, can these Tornados still be used once the successor to the
current nuclear bombs, the B61-12, is deployed in Europe during the
first half of the 2020s?
German Air Force Planning
From 1981/82 to 1992 the German Air Force procured a total of 357
Tornado aircraft. 185 of them have been operating until recently. [ 3 ] This number will be reduced
to 85 aircraft in the near future. The German Air Force is planning to
keep 65 Tornado Interdiction Strike (IDS) and 20 of the younger
Tornado-ECR aircraft in operation. 25 of these planes will form a
squadron of manned aircraft in Reconnaissance Wing 51 "Immelmann" at
Jagel Airbase in Northern Germany. These aircraft will also perform
missions such as suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD) or naval
strike missions. 14 additional aircraft will continue to be deployed at
Holloman AirForce Base in the U.S. for training purposes. The remaining
44 Tornados will be deployed at Buechel Airbase, which is home to GAF
Fighter Bomber Wing (FBW) 33, a long-term nuclear-capable unit. Buechel
will have two squadrons specializing in missions such as close air
support (CAS), long range air-to-ground attack and nuclear sharing. A
recent GAF planning document from June 2012 states: "FBW 33 at
Büchel will be restructured by April 1, 2013 and
it’s two flying squadrons will be responsible for its mission
(conventional air-to-ground attack / nuclear sharing) with unguided
weapons, precision-guided weapons (GBU-24, GBU 54) and long-range
stand-off weapons (MAW TAURUS). On October 1, 2013, FBW 33 will be
renamed Tactical Air Force Wing 33.”[ 4 ]
Once the
U.S. President has authorized their use, B61-3 and B61-4 nuclear
freefall bombs would be made available at Büchel AB for use
and mounted on these German Tornado aircraft. According to current U.S.
plans these bombs are due to be replaced by a new guided and improved
version, the B61-12, by 2019/20 or a couple of years later[ 5 ][ 6 ]
The
Operational Life of the Tornado
Since NATO will retain nuclear sharing for the time being, the question
arises as to how long the 1980s Tornado aircraft can be operationally
used as a nuclear weapons carrier. The answer has proven to be a
"moving target".
In 2008,
the Federal government responded to a parliamentary question of the
Greens thus: "The Bundeswehr plans to keep the TORNADO weapon system in
service at least until 2020.” [ 7 ] On October 6, 2010 a
spokesman for the German Ministry of Defense confirmed that "at least
until" could mean “well beyond”. He said: "The
utilization of the Tornado weapon system is planned to last beyond
2020. No date has been determined for decommissioning the
aircraft."[ 8 ] In October 2011, this game
with words and dates repeated itself: "The Tornado weapon system will probably
be used until 2025 for missions, centering around close air
support, aerial reconnaissance, suppression of enemy air defenses,
attacking naval targets from the air and as a delivery system in the
context of nuclear sharing. (...) Currently, there are no
considerations to operate the Tornado weapon system beyond
2025”, said the Ministry of Defense in a written
answer to a question by a German parliamentarian.[ 9 ]
Only one year later, on September 3, 2012, a spokesman for the MoD,
Christian Dienst, commented during a government press conference:
"It’s like this: The Tornado weapons system, which inter alia
– and I stress inter alia - has the role to act as a
nuclear-capable delivery system (...) will have to be kept in use by
the Bundeswehr beyond 2025 according to current
planning - irregardless" in how many of its current roles.[ 10 ] Finally, the political
leadership of the Defence Ministry confirmed this position.
Parliamentary State Secretary Christian Schmidt replied on September
26, 2012 to questions of MP Paul Schäfer: "The Tornado
Interdiction Strike version is capable of acting as a delivery system
in nuclear sharing. (...) It is planned to use the Tornado weapon
system beyond 2025 in reduced numbers." [ 11 ] (Emphasis added by the
author.)
There
are strong reasons to believe that the remaining technical life of the
Tornado can be stretched out quite deliberately. The German Air Force
can influence how long it will last. The airframes and the engines have
a guaranteed technical minimum lifetime of 8,000 and 7,500 flight hours
respectively, neither of which will be reached anytime soon. It was
only during 2011 that one of the oldest aircraft, a 29-year-old Tornado
used for pilot training, became the very first Tornado to pass 5,000
flight hours. Shortly thereafter it was decommissioned.
The GAF
has several options to influence how long the Tornado can be kept in
service. For the time being it could predominantly fly aircraft which
are to be decommissioned during the planned reduction of the Tornado
fleet. It could primarily retain aircraft with a low number of flight
hours. It could also try to stretch out the retirement phase or keep a
few more aircraft in service than necessary for the next several years
in order to reduce the number of hours individual aircraft will be
flown per year. Keeping in service the full complement of 46 Tornado
aircraft for NATO nuclear sharing while only 10-20 nuclear weapons are
currently deployed in Germany could reflect a strategy to keep a larger
number of aircraft, each of which would be used for low numbers of
flight hours. Such a strategy could also allow for a future additional
modernisation of some of the remaining 85 Tornados. These 85 could be
retired in two sequential steps. Finally, the GAF could keep the number
of annual flight hours low for its aircrews. All of these options could
prolong the lifetime of the remaining aircraft. From 2012 to 2017, the
German Air Force is planning to make use of its entire Tornado fleet
for a total of approximately 11,500 to 13,310 flight hours per year.
Thus on average each aircraft will be flown for only 135 to 157 flight
hours per year. Given such low numbers of hours per year the Tornado
might be easily be flown until 2030 or even still be airworthy by 2035.
[ 12 ]
Theoretically
the lifetime of the Tornado could be even further extended. However,
this would require large financial resources and another program to
modernise both the airframe and the engines. The Bundeswehr does not
have such plans at present.
Tornado Modernis ation Programs
Currently, those 85 Tornado aircraft which will be kept in service are
being upgraded under various programmes at a cost of approximately
€ 900 million. All of these upgrades are scheduled to be
completed by 2017. Such a large effort only makes sense if the
intention is to operate the Tornado beyond 2025. Since all of these
programmes were initiated years ago, the intention to fly these
aircraft beyond then must have also existed a long time ago. The main
programme is called "Avionics System Software for Tornado in Ada 3"
(ASSTA 3). Within this programme.
among other things, the communication systems and electronic warfare
and jamming capabilities are upgraded, the night vision capability is
enhanced, some cockpit displays are exchanged and a laser-guided
precision bomb, the GBU -54 (V) 3 (LJDAM) is integrated to enable the
Tornado to engage moving targets under all kinds of weather conditions.
By August 15, 2012, the German Air Force received the first of these
modernised aircraft. [ 13 ] No modernisation effort
specifically dealing with the integration of modernised
B61-12 nuclear bombs is currently underway and none has been planned so
far. [ 14 ] Another Tornado upgrade
called ASSTA 3.1 is under development in industries for implementation
during 2018 onward. However, it has not yet been contracted. Industry
investment into this programme demonstrates its level of interest and
belief, that the Tornado can be operated for several more years beyond
2025. As far as is publicly known, integrating the B61-12 is not yet
part of this programme either.[ 15 ]
If the
B61-12 bomb is to be deployed in Europe, the German Tornado aircraft
will probably have to be modified in some way to become interoperable
with the new fully digitalised weapon. At least some adjustments will
become necessary. A new Interface Control Unit – a module
connecting the bomb and the aircraft – is believed to be
necessary to enable the old aircraft to
“communicate” with the new bomb. Development of
this component is likely to happen in the US. However, it is not yet
clear who will bear the cost.

Otfried Nassauer is a freelance journalist and
director of the Berlin Information Centre for Transatlantic Security -
BITS
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Footnotes:
[ 1 ] BMVg: Priorisierung Materialinvestitionen – Handlungsempfehlungen, Berlin,
25.6.2010, pt. W_3-G-2, online: http://www.geopowers.com/sites/default/files/PrioMat.pdf
[ 2 ] Dr. James Miller (PDUSDP / DoD) in Cable
09USNATO0378 4.9.2009, online: http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/09/09USNATO378.html
[ 3 ] By the autumn of 2006, 129 aircraft
had been lost through accidents and crashes (44) or withdrawn from service
for other reasons (85). See: Deutscher Bundestag: Drucksache
16/3169, p. 6
[ 4 ] Bundesministerium der Verteidigung: Realisierungsplan für die Einnahme der
Luftwaffenstruktur, Teilplan 03, Berlin, 12.Juni 2012, p.2. Kormoran (anti-ship) and HARM (SEAD) missiles
are reaching the end of their technical life in the near future and must be
retired. Replacement is not currently
planned. Once this has happened the Tornado can only be used for SEAD and anti-ship
missions with “dumb iron-bombs”, i.e. in a more or less basic training mode.
[ 5 ] NNSA expects it can provide a First
Production Unit (FPU) in 2019 and the series production models from 2020
onward. The Pentagon predicts the FPU can be provided in FY 2022 and the
serial production deliveries are to be expected from 2023 onward. These
timelines are based on the assumption that the project will be fully funded
over the years to come.
[ 6 ] The original plan was to replace the
Tornado aircraft of FBW 33 at Buechel by non-nuclear-capable Eurofighter
aircraft from 2012 onward. This plan was given up in the context of
restructuring Bundeswehr planning during the autumn of 2011. See
Bundesministerium der Verteidigung: Realisierungsplan für die Einnahme der
Luftwaffenstruktur, Teilplan 03, Berlin, 12.Juni 2012, p.2. On plans to
modernise the B61-bombs, see Nassauer, Otfried & Piper Gerhard:
Atomwaffenmodernisierung in Europa – Das Projekt B61-12, Berlin, September
2012, online: http://www.bits.de/public/pdf/rr-12-1.pdf
[ 7 ] Deutscher Bundestag, Drucksache 16/9834 vom 26.6.2008, p.36, online: http://dipbt.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/16/098/1609834.pdfhttp://dipbt.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/16/098/1609834.pdf
[ 8 ] Bundesministerium der Verteidigung - Presse- und Informationsstab:
Sprechererklärung zur Nutzungsdauer der Tornado-Jagdbomber, Berlin, 6.10.2010
[ 9 ] BMVg: Bericht des Bundesministeriums der Verteidigung zur Zukunft des
Waffensystems Tornado, Berlin, 12.10.2011
[ 10 ] Transcript of Government Press Conference,
Berlin, 3.9.2012
[ 11 ] Deutscher Bundestag, Drucksache 17/10875, p.46
[ 12 ] The initial guaranteed operational
lifetime of the Tornado airframe was 4,000 flight hours and 3,000 flying
hours for the engine. The operational lifetime of the airframe was later
extended to 8,000 flight hours and for the engine to 7,500 hours. See:
Europäische Sicherheit 4-2010, online: http://www.europaeische-sicherheit.de/Ausgaben/2010/2010_07/04_Gei%DF_Berndt/2010,07,04.html On the Tornado aircraft first
reaching 5,000 flight hours, see: Flugrevue, 8.8.2011, online: http://www.flugrevue.de/de/luftwaffe/streitkraefte/erster-tornado-der-luftwaffe-erreicht-5000-flugstunden.60484.htm.
[ 13 ] Rachow, Volker: Luftwaffe – Tornado MLU, Air International, Dezember 2011,
p. 74f
[ 14 ] Deutscher Bundestag: Drucksache 17/10875,
p.47 „Currently no plans exist to undertake modernisation measures for
Tornado IDS, specifically resulting from nuclear sharing.”
[ 15 ] Since the technical parameters of the
B61-12 still have to be finalised, the interfaces can not yet be finally
defined either, and therefore preparatory measures to integrate the B61-12
into the Tornado do not yet make sense.
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